Forecasting is an essential part of management. Predicting, with reasonable certainty, what might happen and how likely it is to occur is the first step in making informed decisions.

Forecasts are usually based on analysing trends and patterns in historical data. Statistical models are central to this. A distinguishing feature of our approach is the use of structural information from the system being analysed. Rather than using black boxes, models are developed where the structure reflects reality.

Data Analysis Australia also incorporates subjective factors into forecasting models. Structured consultation with expert panels and stakeholders is used to develop critical probability points in the models. An advantage of this approach is that it gives measures of how uncertain the future may be.

Some of the forecasting analysis Data Analysis Australia has completed include:

• Demand for air services that contributed to the development of the master plan for the Christmas Island airport. This study required the assessment and modelling of major but uncertain infrastructure developments.

• Internet penetration into the Perth Metropolitan region, providing internet suppliers with geographical planning information required for backbone roll-out.

• Future consumption for a major Western Australian utility. Forecasts are generated not only for total consumption but also peak demand since this directly affects generation capacity and capital requirements.

• Daily water consumption in Perth and measuring the extent to which it is influenced by the weather and advertising of conservation measures.